Expected 4Q08 heavy truck industry losses, Weichai worst breakeven

4Q08 heavy-duty card industry is expected to lose money: 2H08 heavy truck sales for six consecutive months of negative growth, 4Q08 heavy truck industry sales fell 43.7% year-on-year, is expected to heavy truck industry 4Q08 losses. Main reasons: [1] The operation of the macro-economy at the bottom, the financial crisis has spread to the real economy, and exports have fallen sharply; [2] the turnover volume of road freight has shown a downward trend, and the transportation industry customers have adopted a cautious investment attitude. 1H08 heavy truck sales pressure is still large, 2H08 is expected to bottom out. It is estimated that the sales growth of heavy trucks in 2009 and 2010 will be -30% and 30% respectively.

4Q08 Weichai worst-case break-even: The main source of corporate earnings is the engine business. Weichai 4Q08 engine sales of about 29,000 units, slightly more profitable balance point. In 2008, it is expected that Weichai headquarters, Shaanxi Fast and Shaanxi Zhongqi will obtain the qualification of high-tech enterprises, and the income tax rate will be reduced from 25% (pre-paid) to 15%. It is expected that the income tax saving will be the event after the balance sheet date. Confirmed in 2008. The above two issues will make the 4Q08 single quarter final profit of 10 million yuan. Taking into account the company's possible withdrawal of preparation, accounting for the appropriate smoothing period, our model temporarily calculates the 4Q08 profit to zero, that is, the EPS of Weichai in 2008 is expected to be 2.42 yuan.

In 2009, the company will benefit from the recovery of the machinery industry and benefit from the recovery of the heavy truck industry.

Engine business is the main source of profit for the company. Taking 2008 as an example, it is expected that the engine business will realize a net profit of 1.583 billion yuan, accounting for 79% of the total net profit.
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