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The main benefit indicators of the machinery industry continued the downward trend since last year. In the first half of the year, the main business income of the machinery industry was 10.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.47% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the lowest level in the same period since 2008. The total profit realized was 714.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.13%, and the growth rate was 19.45 percentage points lower than the 19.58% in the same period of last year. The lowest level in the same period in the past five years.
At the same time, the connotation of industry fixed asset investment has undergone positive changes. In the first half of the year, a total of 2.1777 billion yuan in fixed asset investment was completed, an increase of 9.55% year-on-year, and the growth rate has declined for four consecutive years. This year it has fallen back to single-digit growth.
It is worth noting that from January to June, investment in mechanical industrial reconstruction and technological transformation was 565.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.56%, which was 4.71 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year and 13.01 percentage points higher than that of the machinery industry investment. From the perspective of the proportion, investment in reconstruction and technological transformation accounted for 25.97% of the total investment in the industry, an increase of 2.76 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, and driving the growth of investment in the machinery industry by 5.24 percentage points.
Chen Bin stated that the changes in the investment structure indicate that the machinery industry is constantly adapting to the new normal, and that investment has shifted from large-scale expansion to focus on intensional development.
From the perspective of foreign trade, the total volume of imports and exports in the first half of the year was 332.7 billion U.S. dollars, down 4.3% year-on-year, of which imports were 138.2 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%. The decline continued for three months and deepened month by month. Exports totaled 195.4 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.46% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell month by month.
The output of more than half of the machinery industry decreased year-on-year, but most of the declines narrowed. Among the 119 key products monitored, the number of products with a year-on-year increase was 45, which accounted for 37.82%, and that of the year-on-year decrease was 74, which accounted for 62.18%, and the product varieties with a year-on-year decline continued to increase. Chen Bin said that for the first time in more than half of the number of varieties of machinery products decline in recent years, it is enough to see that the current downward pressure on the growth rate of the industry is indeed larger.
From the product point of view, the largest decline in output is a typical investment product with “strong periodicity†characteristics, such as construction machinery, trucks, heavy machinery, metallurgy and mining machinery, petrochemical equipment, and conventional power generation equipment; Seriously surplus ordinary mechanical products, such as ordinary machine tools, AC motors, welding machines, electric furnaces, wire and cable and low-voltage electrical appliances, small and medium-sized farm machinery products, and cameras.
One of the main reasons for the increase in output is the host products that are closely related to consumption, improvement of people's livelihood, energy saving and emission reduction, and efficiency savings, such as high-horsepower tractors, corn harvesters, post-harvest treatment equipment, and agricultural product processing equipment, instrumentation, and copying equipment. , Environmental protection equipment and environmental protection equipment, CNC molding machinery, wind power generation equipment, power transmission and transformation equipment, etc.; Second, most of the parts and components products, such as bearings, fasteners, industrial chain, forgings and so on. Their common characteristic is: Compared with products that are mainly driven by investment, they have “weak periodicityâ€.
The differentiation among industries is obviously one of the important features of the operation of the machinery industry. The structural adjustment of the macro economy has a greater impact on the industries with investment products as the main body. The construction machinery industry is a typical industry that serves the infrastructure construction. Under the relatively low infrastructure of the whole society, the production and sales have fully declined. In the first half of the year, the main business income and profit realized have dropped by 10.09% and 39.77% respectively. The heavy machinery industry served the metallurgy and mining industry. Affected by the lack of demand from the metallurgical and mining industries, the production, sales, and profits of the heavy machinery industry declined month by month. The profits from the main business income for the first half of the year increased slightly by 0.45% and 0.36% respectively year-on-year. The petrochemical general machinery industry was affected by the drop in oil prices. Its profit dropped sharply and its willingness to invest weakened. Both the production and sales of the petrochemical general machinery industry and the profit growth rate both fell.
The consumption-related food packaging machinery industry has grown rapidly in recent years. In the first half of the year, the main business income and profit realized have increased by 10.15% and 8.04% respectively. Although the agricultural machinery industry is an investment product, in recent years, with the continued increase in farmers' income and the support of national policies, it has continued to maintain a stable operation. In the first half of the year, the main business income and profits have increased by 6.98% and 13.78%, respectively. The first in all industries.
The growth rate of the automotive industry this year has been falling month by month. In the first half of the year, the main business revenue increased by 3.87% year-on-year, and the profit decreased by 1.56% year-on-year. Affected by the impact of the internal combustion engine industry, the growth rate fell sharply. The main business income and profit realized decreased by 4.72% and 14.81% respectively year-on-year.
Pressures intensified transformation and innovation achievements highlight the first half of the year, the machinery industry conscientiously implement a series of policies and measures such as steady growth, structural adjustment, and reforms introduced by the State Council. Positive factors in the development of the industry are accumulating, and some enterprises and industries that started early restructuring The trend of the region is good.
Chen Bin introduced that products that are in line with national policies have accelerated development. New energy vehicles in the automotive industry have grown rapidly. From January to June, new energy vehicles produced 76,000 vehicles and sold 73,000 vehicles, which were 2.5 times and 2.4 times year-on-year growth respectively. Sales and sales of pure electric vehicles were 49,000 and 46,000, respectively, which were 3 times and 2.9 times year-on-year respectively. Production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 27,000 and 26,000, respectively, which were 2 times and 1.9 times year-on-year respectively. China's brand passenger car market share has increased. In the first half of the year, China's branded passenger car sales were 4.18 million, an increase of 14.57% year-on-year, and the market share was 41.45%, an increase of 3.54 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.
The internal combustion engine industry was affected by the conversion period of the upgrade of emission standards, and the sales of internal combustion engine products for commercial vehicles and non-road mobile machinery declined. In the face of difficulties, companies have taken various measures to increase investment, research and development and production of high-end products. For example, some companies have gone up and down for four or six cylinder machines supporting agricultural machinery. In its product upgrades. The core components related to product upgrades, such as supercharger, post-processing, and fuel system, have all increased to varying degrees.
The industry places greater emphasis on improving quality and efficiency. Under severe environmental and market pressures, companies place greater emphasis on building product quality to enhance their competitiveness. For example, due to the slowdown in growth rate and fierce market competition in the heavy machinery industry, large-scale enterprises generally pay attention to the qualification rate of castings and forgings, and significantly improve the internal quality of castings and forgings. At present, the qualification rate of large-scale castings and forgings reaches about 98%.
Independent innovation continues to make new breakthroughs. The self-innovation is a success story. For example, the high-headed, large-capacity pumped storage units that have been subject to import for a long time have achieved breakthroughs in independent innovation. Orders for domestic companies in the pumped-storage power station contract have increased significantly. The 660,000 kilowatts of thermal power unit boilers successfully developed by domestic enterprises are the world's highest-parameter ultra-supercritical boilers. The thermal efficiency of the ultra-supercritical boilers is nearly 2% higher than that of conventional ultra-supercritical units, and the coal consumption of power generation is reduced by 9 g/kWh. The annual savings of standard coal can be achieved. 30,000 tons.
In response to the fierce competition in the traditional machine tool market, machine tool companies rely on their technical strengths to develop an “i5†intelligent machine tool based on the Internet and advanced error compensation and precision control technology, which shows the user the realization of network intelligence in operation, programming, maintenance and management. a bright future.
After the successful development of the domestic first half-kilo-kilowatt nuclear power half-speed rotor, six such rotors have been provided one after another. The weight and technical requirements of these rotors have reached the leading level among domestic counterparts and all the targets have been met.
In terms of basic components, high-end hydraulic parts products have achieved initial success. In the industry, a group of companies including Zhongchuan Hydraulics, Huade Hydraulics and Sanyi Lilong made breakthroughs in supporting high-end hydraulic parts for construction machinery, and they have been supplied to the market in bulk. better.
Intelligent manufacturing and application are actively promoted. Under the background of the national strategy for promoting the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industries, the pace of information construction in China's manufacturing industry has accelerated in recent years. The areas of intelligent manufacturing and applications represented by the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta continue to expand, automatic production lines, and intelligent workshops. Demand for robots, such as modern logistics, has risen rapidly.
According to statistics from the China Robotics Industry Federation, China has become the world’s largest robot consumer market for two consecutive years. In 2014, the number of robots sold in the Chinese market reached 57,000, an increase of 54.6% in comparable terms, accounting for a quarter of global sales. Among them, nearly 17,000 robots are produced locally, and the value of the robots is close to 3 billion yuan, which is approximately 60% faster than the previous year. The number of robots used in manufacturing in China will continue to grow rapidly in 2015, and the total volume and growth rate are expected to exceed 2014.
In addition, new marketing models are constantly emerging. The marketing mode of financial leasing started preliminary exploration on a number of complete sets of projects such as metallurgy and mining. The obvious improvement in the economic performance of the air separation industry in the general machinery industry was mainly due to the results of the successful transition of air separation companies to the manufacturing services industry in previous years.
Policy favorable release is expected to stabilize recovery Chen Bin told the China Industry News reporter that although the country has introduced a series of policies in the first five months of this year, but at a key industry conference held shortly before, delegates said they have not yet felt the industry For the better, it is expected that the policy will gradually emerge after June. Coupled with the high and low trend of the industry last year, the growth rate of the machinery industry is expected to rebound in the second half of this year.
Judging the trend of the machinery industry throughout the year, Chen Bin pointed out that, from the perspective of favorable factors, the first is that the macroeconomic policy environment is loose. The state has introduced a series of policies and measures such as stabilizing growth, adjusting the structure, and promoting reforms. The macroeconomic situation is expected to further pick up. The supply of energy and raw materials is relatively loose, which is conducive to the cost control and efficiency improvement of the machinery industry. The state has introduced many encouraging innovations. Policies, especially the introduction of "Made in China 2025," will certainly accelerate the pace of development of the machinery industry.
The second is the comparison of the base effect of the previous year. The growth rate at the beginning of last year was relatively high, which drove up the comparison base for this year. As a result, the year-on-year growth rate in the first half of the year fell sharply. However, due to the fact that the growth curve for the whole year was high before and after the low, considering the year-on-year increase in One situation will be conducive to a gradual recovery in the second half of this year.
Third, some indicators of the industry are showing signs of improvement. The month of June and the accumulative growth rate of the value added of the machinery industry showed signs of recovery; the financing environment tended to improve; the purchase price was still at a low level, and the upstream purchase price index was 4 to 9 percentage points lower than the mechanical product, which was conducive to the reduction in the cost of the machinery industry. effect. From January to June, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in machinery industry continued to rebound slightly in two months.
Fourth, private enterprises have maintained a growth trend. From January to June, the main business income of machinery industry private enterprises increased by 7.2% year-on-year, profit increased by 9.38%, and tax revenue increased by 9.55%, both higher than the industry growth rate over the same period. In the industrial exports, private enterprises maintained a growth trend from January to June, an increase of 6.76% year-on-year, and state-owned and foreign-funded enterprises decreased year-on-year.
Judging from the unfavorable factors, first, from the perspective of the machinery industry, the downward pressure remains high. Since the beginning of this year, enterprises have generally felt that the economic operation has fallen far beyond expectation. The lack of market demand, the reduction of orders, the continuous decline in prices, and the sharp decline in profits have become common concerns for enterprises. The weak market demand may not be significantly improved in the short term. According to the survey, the accumulated orders for the key enterprises in the machinery industry continued to be sluggish. From January to May, the cumulative orders of the key enterprises in the machinery industry decreased by 13.49% year-on-year, and they fell by 8.41% from January to June. The lack of demand will be an important issue for the machinery industry in 2015. One of the challenges.
Second, from the macro environment, there are still many uncertainties. At present, the international economic situation is complicated, the market demand is sluggish, and China’s economic development has entered a new normal. It is in a critical period of climbing over and over and overcoming difficulties. The downward pressure on the economy is still large and the difficulties are many, and the machinery industry is investing. In the industry dominated by products, under the premise of sluggish investment demand and only a small increase in investment in construction and new construction projects, the demand for machinery industry is still weak. The foundation for recovery is still not stable.
Considering all factors, although the downward pressure is high, there are national macro-control policies and the incentive of “Made in China 2025â€. The structural adjustment of the machinery industry will continue to advance, the driving force for endogenous growth will continue to increase, and the overall quality of the industry is expected to increase steadily. .
Chen Bin emphasized that 2015 is the last year of implementing the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†and is also a good year for the implementation of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Planâ€. The machinery industry must resolutely implement the strategic deployment of the central government, speed up the pace of structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, further increase the vitality of economic growth and the driving force for innovation, and strive to achieve stable and rapid development of the machinery industry.
Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of the value added of the machinery industry has continued to decline, and the decline has exceeded the expectation at the beginning of the year. In the first half of the year, the value-added of the machinery industry increased by 5.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the national industrial growth rate by 0.6% during the same period, and was also lower than the growth rate of the machinery industry by 5.5 percentage points over the same period of last year. Chen Bin said that the growth rate of the value added of machinery industry is lower than the growth rate of industrial added value. This is a phenomenon that has been rare for many years and needs to attract the attention of the industry.