The heavy truck market faces the test of the National III standard.
July 1 National III emission standards will be formally implemented across the country. Expert weighing cards are most affected
The situation of the commercial vehicle industry, especially heavy trucks, has finally occurred. Tomorrow (July 1), the National III emission standards are formally implemented in the country, and the most rapidly growing heavy trucks since last year are under heavy pressure. Analysts believe that the whole year Sales situation may show a kind of "high before and after" situation.
Worsening situation in the second half
Due to the explosive growth in the first half of the year and the sharply rising selling price brought about by China III emission standards, the inevitably suffered heavy losses in the second half of the year, and the heads of major manufacturers have expressed their views on the situation in the second half of the year. Not optimistic, so try to ship in the first half.
Guosen Securities has released a forecast report a few days ago that it expects sales to drop rapidly in June (perhaps 1/3 to 1/2 of sales in May), and that the heavy truck industry will peak at that time. In 2008, sales growth fell back to 10%. In 2009, sales fell by about 20%. This round of adjustment is expected to last for 1 year and the heavy truck industry may recover in September next year.
But not everyone is a pessimistic faction. The GF Securities automotive industry recently reported in its “Investment Strategy for the Third Quarter of 2008†that the factors supporting the rapid development of the heavy-duty truck industry in 2007 are still playing a role, and this year there are also emergencies such as snowstorms and earthquakes. The event promoted investment in fixed assets, as well as new factors such as rising freight rates to support the heavy-duty truck market this year. Combined with the rapid growth of last year, the heavy-duty truck industry is still expected to grow by about 15% to 560,000 vehicles this year. In the first half of the year, the sales volume was approximately 380,000 units, and the corresponding sales volume in the second half of the year was approximately 180,000 units.
GF Securities stated in its report that heavy trucks this year also have the following favorable factors: Guangdong, Zhejiang, and other big economic provinces will join the ranks of weight-based charges this year, and the implementation of weight-based charges will bring 20% ​​to the heavy truck market in 2007. New demand; In addition, road freight and port cargo still maintain a strong growth momentum, which is a strong guarantee for the demand of the tractor market.
Major injury to heavy trucks
“We know the news is that the national III standard for class m1 (less than 3.5 tons of light trucks) will be implemented one year for extension and the M1 class (light passengers below 3.5 tons) will be delayed for three months.†Wei last week told this newspaper that “the impact of the National III standard is mainly on heavy trucks, because the emissions of passenger vehicles have basically reached the standard.†He also disclosed that light commercial vehicles can be sold in rural areas in the form of agricultural vehicles, the country I emissions Standards are acceptable. Therefore, sales of light commercial vehicles (CVs) included in the statistical approach are not optimistic. However, if the rural markets calculate together, the sales of light commercial vehicles will be good. â€
“The National III standard on July 1st this year was mainly focused on vehicle compression ignition engines.†GF Securities Automotive Industry Researcher Li Weiqing told this newspaper that “mainly affected are heavy-duty automotive diesel engines used in heavy-duty trucks and Big customers, but the proportion of heavy trucks occupies more than 90%, so the impact is mainly in the heavy truck industry."
Due to the rise from the National II Standard to the National III Standard, the cost of a heavy truck has risen from around 20,000 to 50,000 yuan. Lin Wei believes that when it is just implemented, consumers will certainly wait and see, but after a while, they must buy a car. People still want to buy, and it is estimated that the market will gradually return to normal around October.
Stimulate early consumption of heavy trucks
The implementation of the National III Standard also stimulated the early consumption of heavy trucks, and the purchasing power broke out in advance. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, after achieving a rapid growth of 50% last year, from January to May of this year, heavy trucks sold 321,000 vehicles, an increase of 53.32% year-on-year, again becoming the fastest growing sub-industry. “Dongfeng’s heavy trucks were in short supply in the first half of the year and therefore had to work overtime to meet the demand in violation of labor laws.†Tong Dongcheng, general manager of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Company, told reporters in this way.
The sales volume of the major truck manufacturers in the first five months is enough to describe them with gratifying people. According to statistics from China National Auto Group, the company achieved sales of 65,000 units in the first five months, an increase of 45% year-on-year, and sales revenue exceeded 22.5 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 60% year-on-year, and achieved half of the production and sales tasks one month ahead of schedule; FAW Group According to the latest statistics, from January to May, total sales of heavy trucks in the liberation fleet of FAW were 76,000 units, an increase of 51.7% year-on-year, of which sales in May were 16,900 units, up 70.2% year-on-year; sales of Dongfeng heavy trucks were 60,213 units, up 76.9% year-on-year. Other slightly smaller heavy-duty truck makers are no less productive than the top three.
January to May 2008 Commercial Vehicles
Sales of various types of models
Sales (vehicles) increase year-on-year
Truck 1169723 24.56%
Heavy truck 320982 53.32%
Zhongka 108227 5.25%
Light truck 581762 20.37%
Micro Card 158752 10.53%
Bus 146753 8.14%
Large 15925 20.83%
Medium 32481 4.24%
Light 98347 7.63%
Total 1316476 22.48%
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