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At the same time, the Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection documents show that after a lapse of three years, the R22 production quota will be cut again in 2019, and according to the plan, it will be further reduced to 35% of the benchmark according to the plan. In the case of basically stable demand, supply and demand will be More nervous.
The third generation of refrigerant developed countries began to cut in 2019, and exports are expected to continue to rise.
In addition, the annual peak season of refrigerant starts from the summer season, generally the peak season of air-conditioning production from March to June, and the peak season of maintenance market from May to July. In 2019, the supply of fluorite is tight and the production quota of R22 is reduced again. The third generation of refrigerant developed countries began to cut down on favorable factors such as production and use, and the refrigerant industry boom can be improved.
However, we must also be alert to the risk that the second and third generation refrigerants will not be as expected. The third generation of refrigerants is in the capacity expansion period and there is a risk of overcapacity.
At present, the long-term disorderly mining has led to the reduction of high-quality resources of fluorite in China, the rising cost of mining, and the mode of environmentally strict, the inferior production capacity has withdrawn, the industry concentration has increased, the industry supply has tightened, and the domestic fluorite production has been continuous. It has remained at around 4 million tons for many years, and there has been little growth. At the same time, the import volume has increased greatly. It is expected that the supply of fluorite will remain tight in 2019.