Cheng Yuan: To control overcapacity in auto development is not a false proposition

A few days ago, officials from the National Development and Reform Commission said that "there are indications of overcapacity in the auto industry." The remarks in the car industry caused an uproar.

In fact, the issue of “overcapacity” has been accompanied by the growth of China's auto industry. Starting from China’s auto industry, “capacity” is a “problem.” In a short while, there will be a surplus, a cycle of several years. The Chinese auto industry has grown up in big ups and downs.

In general, after a high market growth, it will inevitably lead to excess capacity. Under the temptation of high market growth, all companies will secretly compete for “exploiting potential expansions.” As a result, there has been a statistically significant increase in total production capacity, resulting in “overcapacity”.

However, in China, a country with rapid economic growth, excess production capacity can be quickly absorbed by the fast-growing market. The overcapacity of the Chinese auto industry has never lasted for a long time, and it has not caused too much damage to the industry. On the contrary, companies often suffer from a lack of capacity, and they see that the precious silver cannot be installed in their own pockets. That is a pity! Therefore, Chinese auto companies have always been afraid of insufficient production capacity and are not afraid of overcapacity. They have always turned a deaf ear to the warning about overcapacity.

Like China's economy, the Chinese auto market has two major features: First, it is fast growing, and second, it is changeable and elusive. Therefore, the Chinese auto market forecast is like the "Goldbach Conjecture", from the "6th Five-Year Plan" to the "11th In the "V" plan, it can be said that the prediction of the automobile market is almost inaccurate, and that the market is still specializing in dealing with experts. The market goal they proposed is either not completed, or it is achieved several years in advance, leaving experts with no face. Since the prediction of market size is inaccurate, how can we judge whether the "surplus" of production capacity is "absolute"?

Of course, as a government management department, regulation and control are their irresponsible responsibilities. Their “visible hand” must be to interfere in the “invisible hand” of the market. The Chinese auto industry has also been under strict government supervision. Forgive me for the fact that the “overcapacity” that vehicles once had had been approved by the government’s “visible hand”.

Recall that at the beginning of reform and opening up, China’s auto production was less than 180,000 vehicles in 1981, and this year it may reach 16.5 million vehicles, which has increased more than 90 times in 30 years. This precedent may have existed in the history of the world’s automobiles? How much "surplus" capacity can be digested by this growth rate and growth rate! So some people put forward "overcapacity is a false proposition."

However, can this high growth in the Chinese auto market continue? Does it mean that as some people have said, China has a population of 1.3 billion. As long as we do a good job of expansion, the market resources are like a cornucopia. Is it inexhaustible?

If it is only from purchasing power, it is likely to be the case. Looking at the past 30 years, the potential of the Chinese car market is always immeasurable. At this stage, the main factor that restricts the development of the automotive market is purchasing power. As the economy continues to develop and people’s incomes continue to increase, people who are able to purchase cars are indeed “increasing in strength”. Of course, there are transportation facilities, but the road is always being repaired. As far as energy is concerned, it has only been so scarce in recent years. The price of oil is only so expensive, and urban air pollution also means "unbearable." In the past, the base was very small, although the increase was large, but the absolute value of the increase was not large, and everything was in a controllable range. Therefore, it was advisable to promote the entry of cars into families and vigorously promote the development of automobiles.

The situation is now different. The size of all major cities has been expanded several times. The roads have been repaired enough, and it is still difficult to block the road. Oil is less and less, and prices have also been doubling. Automobile emissions have become the main source of pollution in most cities in China. Can't the city's land be entirely made into roads and parking lots? New energy technologies may not be able to make fundamental breakthroughs in the short term, and urban air pollution has reached its limit. It goes without saying that if Americans all have cars, they will reach the level of 0.6 cars per capita in Japan and Germany, and China’s car ownership will have to reach 800 million cars, which exceeds the total car ownership of the world’s current 600 million vehicles. Society can carry so much Car?

It seems that the era of the development of the character of the car is over. Different from the 30 years before the reform and opening up, the development of the automobile market will no longer be a purchasing power but a resource factor such as land, energy, and the atmosphere. Under the new situation, the automobile industry should have a holistic vision. It should be based on the overall development of the national economy and based on the affordability of China's land, energy, and environment to develop a development goal that constitutes a harmonious society, rather than simply designing for the growth of purchasing power. The development of the car, the development of the car should be restrained.

Nowadays, some local governments only see the contribution of cars to GDP, and indeed companies only see the benefits of car development. They believe that as long as the economy develops, people’s income will increase, and they will have stronger purchasing power. The auto market will It will expand indefinitely, so it will rush to invest in automotive projects. If the market size reaches 30 million vehicles in 2015, it means that the annual sales of automobiles will be doubled in five years! Will various social resources support such a large sales volume at that time?

If the car really becomes too much of a disaster, the car on the road will not run and the parking space will not be found. It will no longer be convenient and fast or even painful for the car to bring people. Is there still great enthusiasm for people? buy? Will the government introduce a policy of restricting development? Despite great purchasing power!

If such a situation really occurs, will "effective capacity" become "invalid capacity"? Judging whether there is excess vehicle capacity, I am afraid we cannot simply look at purchasing power, let alone rely on the pace of development in the past.

There is always a gap between hope and possibility. The capacity issue is really not a "false proposition."