Inflation under the auto market in China in 2011 "three doors"

In the fourth quarter, the domestic price hikes caused anxiety to the entire nation and raised concerns about the economic outlook for 2011. The Chinese auto market, which is closely related to the macro economy, has become a topic of concern. What will happen to the car market in 2011?

Indeed, compared to previous years, the Chinese auto market has never been so worried and entangled. On the one hand, people see that this year continues to grow rapidly and continues to dominate the world's largest auto market; on the other hand, there are many uncertain factors in the domestic and international economic situation, such as the global economic crisis has not yet receded, domestic inflation , The economy is facing a full transformation pressure, and three consecutive years of loose monetary policy are coming to an end... All this will undoubtedly have a major impact on the auto market, making the trend of the auto market in 2011 become confusing. A number of negatives are pointing to the 2011 auto market, which is a ruthless fact. As we stand at the threshold of 2011 and plan to elevate our feet, there are three hurdles coming: inflation, monetary tightening and uncertain industrial policies. From a rational point of view, any of these tribulations may change the trend of the 2011 auto market.

From the current perspective, the cost of raw materials, manpower, logistics, transportation, and petroleum involved in automobile manufacturing is rising. For example, due to the rise in international rubber prices, German brand tires have already taken the lead in price increase. The price of logistics transportation caused by diesel shortage has risen. A new round of wage increase is underway. Oil prices are rising. All these factors will be rapidly transmitted to automobile production lines. , Push up costs, thus increasing the financial burden on manufacturers. If automakers don't pass on prices to consumers, they can only "pick all their problems." The problem is that no matter how you choose, it is a difficult problem.

The second round of monetary tightening may be remembered by many people. Before and after the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, many companies had to tighten their expenditures due to monetary tightening, which affected production and marketing as well as new product R&D and promotion. As a result, automobile production and sales have also been declining. In fact, monetary tightening is the result of inflation. Adopting a monetary tightening policy will prevent more currencies from entering the circulation area and prevent further price increases. However, tightened monetary policy will not only cause automakers to find it difficult to raise funds from financial institutions at a low cost, resulting in a tightening of liquidity, which will affect production and investment. This effect will also be passed on to employees and individuals, resulting in reduced income and affecting consumption. .

The Third Uncertain Industrial Policy Objectively speaking, the speeding growth of the Chinese auto market in 2009 and 2010 was based on the 4 trillion investment, loose fiscal and monetary policies, and automobile policies to the countryside and purchase tax deduction subsidies. There is no special macroeconomic environment and the government’s generous industrial policies. It is feared that the Chinese automobile market will be the world’s largest. On the contrary, due to the rapid development, huge traffic, environmental and energy pressure will make the “policy auto market” invisible in 2011: the purchase tax subsidy policy will be abolished, the purchase tax for vehicles and boats will be increased, and the stricter fuel consumption limit will be implemented. Standards... It seems that China’s auto industry, which has been used for two years, will face an unprecedented test next year.

The three ridges in front of the Chinese auto market in 2011, like the "three-fold doors", are insurmountable, or "open sesame"? However, when the speed of development of the auto market exceeds the limits that the environment, transportation, and resources can withstand, should we rationally reflect? Perhaps the deceleration of the speeding market and the return of the impetuous market to calm are the real prescriptions of the Chinese auto industry in 2011.