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Excessive capacity, prices have fallen sharply
According to Jin Qiang, chairman of the China Coking Industry Association, in the second half of 2003, due to the rapid growth of global steel production, especially China's steel production, the consumption of coke market was boosted. According to statistics, the apparent consumption of coke in China was 191.16 million tons in 2004 and 230.04 million tons in 2005, an increase of 20.54% over the same period of last year. At the same time, coke production in China continued to increase, from 260.18 million tons in 2004 to 2005. The 243 million tons, an increase of 17.9%.
Although coke production maintained rapid growth, due to the export pull and the increase in demand for coke from domestic downstream steel smelting, the supply was tight and the market price skyrocketed, rising from 300 to 400 yuan per ton to 1300 to 1,400 yuan at the highest, not at all. The era of extraordinary profits that few people feel coke has come. Driven by high profits, a large number of soil coke and small machine coke ovens spring up in parts of the country and bloom everywhere. In a small town in a certain province, there are more than a dozen 200,000 tons/year of coke production enterprises. As companies blindly launched, domestic coke production capacity expanded rapidly.
However, it was not a long time. In less than a year, due to the sharp increase in domestic coke production capacity and output, coupled with the slowdown in international market demand, the supply and demand relationship of products has undergone a fundamental change. The market is in short supply, supply exceeds demand, and coke prices Start "diving." Since the second half of 2004, coke prices have been falling all the way to the current near-cost line. In the case that the price of coking coking coal and transportation in the upper reaches continue to be high, the profit space of coking enterprises has been squeezed both upstream and downstream, most of the companies have suffered losses, and the loss side has continued to expand.
According to the latest statistics, in the next three years, China still has 97 coke plants with a total capacity of 60.30 million tons to be built, under construction or put into operation, and the total supply of the market will still increase. Experts believe that only by accelerating the elimination of soil coke, improved coke and a batch of heavily polluted small machine coke at home, measures to curb blind investment can be realized, and the problem of oversupply of coke market in China can be expected to be alleviated.
International demand slows down and export prices fall
Since the 1990s, western developed countries have been restrained by higher levels of environmental protection and higher labor costs. In addition to the elimination of a number of old coke ovens whose ages have expired, world coke output stagnated or even began to decline. At the same time, global steel production has shown a high growth momentum. Therefore, the world has shifted the focus of coke demand to China and gradually imported cheap coke from China.
However, after the second half of 2005, steel output in most countries in the world dropped drastically, and the demand for coke decreased. Due to the unreleased domestic excess production capacity, export prices drastically declined. According to statistics, in 2005 China exported a total of 12.76 million tons of coke, the average export price of 183.37 US dollars / ton; 2004 exports of 15.01 million tons of coke, the average export price of 263.05 US dollars / ton. Compared with 2004, China's coke exports not only decreased, but also the average price of exports fell by 30.29%.
Due to the centralized installation of equipment and excess production capacity, the domestic coke market began to decline in the second half of 2004, and many companies could only rely on exports to reduce pressure. However, in 2005, the production of crude steel and pig iron decreased in most countries and regions such as Europe and the United States, and the demand for coke decreased. As a result, domestic coking companies face the downturn in both the domestic and international markets, and are in a dilemma of both internal and external attacks. Since June 2005, major domestic coke production companies have cut production and restricted production, but this has not completely reversed the situation in the coke market and coke prices have continued to decline.
Jia Yinsong, deputy director of the Economic Operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that this year's international coke market will see new trends in supply and demand: capacity will continue to increase, demand growth will slow, and supply channels will change. Due to the tight supply of coke in the international market in the previous two years, the impact of soaring prices has stimulated some countries to expand their coke production capacity. According to preliminary statistics, only coke production capacity in Europe, such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Ukraine, will exceed 5 million tons per year. But now, the problem of global coke capacity and production surplus has become increasingly serious, which means that the international market will gradually reduce its dependence on Chinese coke.
In addition, according to the "Circular on Controlling Part of the High Energy Consumption, High Pollution, and Export of Resources Products" issued by the country at the end of last year, the total amount of China's coke export quotas will remain at the level of the previous year and will no longer increase. This shows that China's coke export market will not fundamentally improve this year, and competition will further intensify.
Low production concentration and serious environmental pollution
At present, there are more than 1,400 coking companies in China, with an average capacity of only 200,000 tons/year. Due to the small size of the company and the lack of funds, domestic coke enterprises generally suffer from the problems of low rate of completion of environmental protection facilities and low utilization rate, resulting in serious environmental pollution and waste of resources.
According to monitoring by the national environmental protection department, major pollutants in the air in the coking area in China are generally 2 to 10 times higher than the national three-level standards. In particular, excessive benzopyrene levels with strong carcinogenic effects are more serious, and environmental pollution in coking areas has been shown in recent years. Increase the trend.
In addition, coke production requires a large amount of coking coal, which requires about 1.4 tons of coking coal per ton of coke produced. Due to the backward technology and management of most small businesses, the waste of resources and energy is very serious. According to statistics, only the coke Oven gas emitted by the coke industry in Shanxi Province each year amounts to 8 billion cubic meters and 100 tons of coal tar, resulting in direct economic losses of up to 3 billion yuan.
It is not difficult to see that the current development of the coking industry in China is already at a critical juncture. The coking industry should go where and what kind of development strategy is chosen. This is already a very serious problem facing the industry. The healthy development of the industry, in addition to the need for the government's correct guidance, is ultimately based on the company.
From 2003 to 2005, the domestic coke market was turbulent and ups and downs. After many companies tasted the sweetness of the market's unprecedentedly popular market, they also ate the bitter consequences of slumping market prices, blocked exports, and reduced efficiency. Now the coking industry must calm down from the heat of the brain, and can no longer blindly develop, otherwise the coke enterprises are likely to "burn their own".